Big Sky Real Estate Blog

Bozeman a top 25 housing markets for 2009

By HYPERLINK "mailto:gails@dailychronicle.com" HYPERLINK "mailto:gails@dailychronicle.com" GAIL SCHONTZLER Chronicle Staff Writer
Housing Predictor, a national online real estate research firm, is forecasting that Bozeman and four other Montana cities will be among the top 25 U.S. housing markets in 2009.
The firm predicts — based on things like income levels, employment trends, school enrollment and housing markets — that home values in Bozeman will increase slightly, by 1.8 percent, this year.
It forecasts Billings will lead the state with a 3.1 percent home appreciation rate, followed by Great Falls (1.4 percent), Livingston (1.3 percent) and Missoula (1.2 percent).
Such increases are modest, but look great compared to more than 36 states, from California to Florida, where the company projects double-digit deflation in home values.
Nationally, Housing Predictor forecasts turbulence in real estate markets in 2009 and an increase in foreclosures as adjustable-rate mortgages reset to higher interest rates.
Montana, North Dakota and Colorado will be exceptions to the worst economy since the Great Depression, it predicted, “illustrating the fact that real estate markets are normally driven by local market dynamics.”
Mike Basile, broker-owner of Prudential Montana Real Estate and a 28-year veteran of the Bozeman housing market, said, “I would agree we’d see appreciation from 2008,” a year when prices declined slightly.
“I do think we’ll see a slow, moderate rebound,” Basile said. “We’re seeing a large number of buyers. ... not to the degree we did two years ago, but still there are buyers buying. ... They’re bargain-hunting, they’re seeing the value of low interest rates.”
With mortgage rates below 5 percent, Basile said, this is an “amazing time to buy.” Buyers also feel optimistic because there’s a new U.S. president and a federal incentive of $7,500 for first-time homebuyers.
Robyn Erlenbush, broker-owner of ERA Landmark Real Estate, said she wasn’t familiar with Housing Predictor or its track record. But she, too, agreed there are reasons for optimism.
“I’m very hopeful 2009 will be equal to or slightly better than ’08,” Erlenbush said.
In 2008, the average sale price for a single-family home in Bozeman declined from $337,683 in 2007 to $320,342, she said, while the average sale price for condos went down from $234,936 to $215,730. Those decreases work out to 5 percent for houses and 8 percent for condos.
The main reason for her optimism, Erlenbush said, is that the inventory of houses on the market is starting to stabilize or shrink. Home builders aren’t starting new houses or “spec” homes, so homeowners selling existing homes don’t face as much competition.
Every month there seems to be some news that ranks Montana or Bozeman favorably, like the recent ranking of Montana as 46th lowest state in foreclosure rates, she added. And people still want to move to Bozeman.
Housing Predictor does research on 250 local housing markets in all 50 states. Its Web site (housingpredictor.com) claims to have predicted the national real estate recession in 2007 and to have been “the first research firm to forecast the foreclosure epidemic.”
It describes Bozeman as one of the country’s most livable cities, with lots of entrepreneurs, outdoor activities, and a resort vacation market “that may hold its own.” Foreclosures have crept up.
Still, it said, “Montana is turning in a star performance.”
Top 25 Forecast Housing Markets
Two states with reputations for being some of the coldest places in the country dominate the Housing Predictor Top 25 housing markets for 2009. Montana placed all of its five forecast markets on the list, and neighboring North Dakota had 4 markets make the top 25 forecast to have the highest appreciation in home values during the year.
The Housing Predictor Top 25 Markets are selected from the more than 250 local housing markets forecast, and are projected to have the highest probability of hitting their forecast appreciation. Seventeen markets are forecast to experience some level of appreciation in 2009, making the top 25 markets. Eight other markets round out the Top 25 forecast to experience lower deflation than the majority of the country.
Bloomington, Illinois grabbed the #1 position forecast to appreciate 3.6% in average home values in 2009. Bloomington is the home to Illinois State University and the home offices of State Farm Insurance. Homes are taking longer to sell these days in Bloomington, but the market should remain as one of the nation’s exceptions with appreciation in 2009.
Energy rich Grand Junction, Colorado placed second on the list followed by Billings, Montana.
They've dodged the bullet in the nation's housing depression in North Dakota and Montana. During the boom mortgage companies didn’t offer creative new loan programs in either state much, which has acted to protect their housing markets from major deflationary cycles experienced in the majority of the country.
INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.housingpredictor.com./headers/top_09.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET
 Rank
   Real Estate Market
  2009 Forecast

    1.
   Bloomington, IL
       3.6%

    2.
   Grand Junction, CO
       3.1%

    3.
   Billings, MT
       3.1%

    4.
   Fargo, ND
       2.9%

    5.
   Lander, WY
       2.3%

    6.
   Trenton, NJ
       2.3%

    7.
   Morgantown, WV
       2.0%

    8.
   Logan, UT
       2.0%

    9.
   Bozeman, MT
       1.8%

   10.
   Albany, GA
       1.8%

   11.
   Fairmont, WV
       1.6%

   12.
   Minot, ND
       1.6%

   13.
   Great Falls, MT
       1.4%

   14.
   Livingston, MT
       1.3%

   15.
   Bismarck, ND
       1.3%

   16
   Missoula, MT
       1.2%

   17.
   Grand Forks, ND
       1.2%

   18.
   Paducah, KY
     −1.2%

   19.
   Piedmont, SD
     −1.5%

   20.
   Lawton, OK
     −2.1%

   21.
   Black Hills, SD
     −2.1%

   22.
   Edmond, OK
     −2.8%

   23.
   Oklahoma City, OK
     −2.9%

   24.
   Lincoln, NE
     −3.0%

   25.
   Amarillo, TX
     −3.9%

Housing bottom

When Will Prices Bottom Out?
Housing prices will hit bottom in the fourth quarter of 2009, predicts Moody’s Economy.com in a new report.

"Despite the darkening national economic outlook and the weak conditions in the housing market, some positive signs give hope that a bottom in the housing market is coming into view," the report says.

On average, home prices will decline 36 percent from the peak in the first quarter of 2006, the report says.

By the end of the housing downturn, nearly 62 percent of the nation's 381 metropolitan areas will have experienced double-digit-percent declines in house prices, peak-to-trough, says the report.

The declines will exceed 20 percent in about 100 metro areas, according to the report, scheduled to be discussed in a Webcast on Thursday.

The recovery will be “lackluster,” the report continues.

"A number of uncertainties in both the housing and economic outlooks remain, and the risks tilt to the downside," says Moody’s Economy.com Chief Economist, Mark Zandi.

Real Estate News

Stimulus Advances With Tax Credit Changes
The $790 billion stimulus package hammered out by House and Senate conferees late yesterday increases the home buyer tax credit to $8,000, from $7,500, and drops the repayment feature for buyers who hold on to their property for at least three years.

The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® has sought removal of the repayment requirement because it discourages buyers from taking advantage of the tax credit. The three-year minimum holding period is a safeguard against speculators' use of the credit.

The legislation also extends the effective date of the credit to December 1 from June 30, and extends eligibility to borrowers who buy their home with the help of state or local financial assistance that comes from the proceeds of tax-exempt mortgage revenue bonds.

The credit remains open only to first-time buyers (those who haven't owned in at least three years) and some income eligibility restrictions apply, but those are unchanged from the existing program.

Other provisions reportedly in the bill that could help housing markets and communities include:

FHA and conforming loan limits. Specifics have not been released but reports indicate that the 2008 limits have been reinstated for 2009 except in those communities where the 2009 limits are higher. Additional increases in individual communities may also be available at the discretion of the secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Foreclosure mitigation and neighborhood stabilization. Funding for states and localities to be used for neighborhood stabilization activities for the redevelopment of abandoned and foreclosed homes are authorized. Some news reports put the funding level at $2 billion.

Rental assistance. Up to $1.5 billion to provide short-term rental assistance and other aid for families during the economic crisis.

Transportation infrastructure. Up to $29 billion for highway construction projects, $8 billion for rail projects, and $5 billion to weatherize low-income homes.
Rural housing development. Increased funding for the Rural Housing Service direct and guaranteed loan programs.

Low-income housing grants. Allow states to trade in a portion of their 2009 low-income housing tax credits for Treasury grants to finance the construction or acquisition and rehabilitation of low-income housing, including those with or without tax credit allocations

Tax-exempt housing bonds. Tax-exempt interest earned on specified state and local bonds issued during 2009 and 2010 will not be subject to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). In addition, financial institutions will have greater capacity to purchase tax-exempt state and local bonds

Energy efficient housing. Grants for energy retrofits for federally assisted housing (Section 8), funding for energy efficiency and conservation block grants to states, and Increases in the residential tax credit through 2010 for certain energy efficient upgrades.